Kerry's Folly
I think John Kerry is making a real mistake by emphasizing the sorry state of America's economy during the bulk of Bush's term. The economy is its own tempestuous beast, and all a President does is grab onto its back and try to ride it for eight years as it bucks and snorts unpredictably.
Yes, that means that Clinton doesn't get credit for the record-busting economic boom he saddled up on. Reagan, same thing. Conversely, Bush doesn't get the blame for the sulking little pony he's been sitting on for the bulk of his term.
So, what does a President get credit for? Mr. Yglesias nails it:
The real lesson of the Clinton era isn't that Democratic policies made the economy boom, but that these policies -- higher taxes on the wealthy, higher spending on the poor, more regulation to protect labor and the environment, a higher minimum wage, and a budget aimed at sustaining Social Security for the long-term -- were perfectly compatible with the longest economic expansion of American history. Conversely, nothing Bush has done or is proposing -- tax cuts for the wealthy piled upon tax cuts for the wealthy, and giveaway after giveaway to corporate lobbyists -- is either necessary or sufficient to bring about economic growth. Taken to extremes, interventions could do real harm: A $70 per hour minimum wage or a total ban on burning coal would shut the economy down, but this isn't what we're talking about. The minimum wage has been much higher in real terms in the past and the economy grew steadily, while we were enforcing clean air standards properly just a few years ago with no visible ill-effects.
Put this way, we can see what the real debate in America is all about. There's one party that wants the government to do more to clean the environment, to protect workers' rights, and to raise the funds necessary to spend more on health care and education while narrowing the deficit, and there's another party that's ideologically committed to doing none of these things.
Alright, alright, that's all pretty well known. But what are the real world effects of Democratic vs. Republican administrations. Luckily we have two economic booms over the last twenty or so years to examine, one under Clinton and one under Reagan. Neither President gets the credit for the boom itself, but both get credit for how they steered the bounty of the boom. Let's take a look, shall we?
The benefits of the Clinton boom were dispersed far more broadly than the gains under Ronald Reagan, in part because Clinton systematically implemented policies that encouraged and rewarded work for those on the economy's bottom rungs.
Consider the scorecard. During Clinton's two terms, the median income for American families increased by a solid 15% after inflation, according to Census Bureau figures. But it rose even faster for African Americans (33%) and Hispanics (24%) than it did for whites (14%).
The growth was so widely shared that from 1993 through 1999, families in the bottom fifth of the income distribution saw their incomes increase faster than those in the top 5%. By comparison, under President Reagan in the 1980s, those in the top 5% increased their income more than five times faster than the bottom 20%.
Likewise, the poverty rate under Clinton fell 25%, the biggest eight-year decline since the 1960s. It fell even faster for particularly vulnerable groups like blacks, Hispanics and children. Again the contrast with Reagan is striking. During Reagan's two terms, the number of Americans in poverty fell by just 77,000. During Clinton's two terms, the number of Americans in poverty plummeted by 8.1 million. The number of children in poverty fell by 50,000 under Reagan. Under Clinton the number was 4.1 million. That's a ratio of 80 to 1.
Leave aside the question of how much Clinton's drive to eliminate the federal deficit contributed to the economic boom that powered most of these gains. He also developed a comprehensive set of initiatives to spread the benefits of prosperity to more families by demanding and honoring work.
Welfare reform pushed more low-income families into the job market, where they could benefit from the rising tide. Then Clinton made work more rewarding with increases in the minimum wage and the earned-income tax credit, the creation of the Children's Health Insurance Program (to cover the children of working-poor families), and expanded funding for day care. He eliminated the deficit while cutting taxes for average families.
Is there any wonder that the Republican party parades out the gay marriage issue? They're trying to distract you, folks.
Meanwhile, Senator Kerry has been blaming President Bush for the rain. Well, now the sun is coming out and I'm afraid Kerry will have to change his tune. My advice: stop pointing frantically at the retreating clouds and start talking about who gets soaked and who stays dry while the Republicans are handing out umbrellas.