A Prediction on Mid-Term Elections?

Todd Baxter(R) resigned from Texas House Seat 48 in November 2005 for personal reasons. The Republican dominated state government, in an effort to stifle turnout, rushed to call a special election to fill the vacancy. The special election was held on January 17.

Ben Bentzin, a Dellionare, and GOP darling, lost his previous and only campaign in 2004 for a state Senate seat against Gonzolo Barrientos(D), a veteran and extremely popular State Senator.(Actually drank numerous Miller Lites with him one night two years ago--a story to tell some other time) Bentzin was expected to win easily in this district that was prematurely redrawn by Tom DeLay and Texas Republicans in 2001 to elect a Republican.(Usually redrawn every ten years).

Texas election rules require a runoff election if one candidate does not receive 50% plus of the vote in a special election. Bentzin won 37.8% of the vote in a race against two Democrats and one Libertarian. Democrat Donna Howard won 49.5% of the vote, narrowly missing the opportunity to avoid a runoff election. I followed this race closely and expected the two democrats to split votes and Bentzin to easily avoid a runoff. This did not happen and is a strong sign that Democrats, at least in this district, have been busy at work in the last two years organizing and creating a savvy plan.

Political consultant and lobbyist Bill Miller, a close ally of some Republican leaders, described Tuesday's results as surprising because the seat was drawn in 2001 to elect a Republican. He said it could signal that good times are ahead for other Texas Democrats as they try to pick up seats in a Republican-controlled Legislature this year.
"She still has to win, and you have a runoff," Miller said. "But it's a big warning to Republicans to take a look at the issues that are surfacing in this race and how they play with the electorate."

We will see how this race turns out and whether it is a sign that voters are tired of the GOP thinking they can manipulate rules to gain power. Maybe this is a sign of the Democrats making up ground, maybe not, I report, you decide.