Poll Watcher: Flashback from 2000

We're now officially two weeks before the 2004 presidential election and the results from the most recent national polls range from a virtual tie to a 2 percentage point lead for the incumbent, well within the typical margin of error of 4 percentage points. Although I'm highly skeptical of the polls, especially the dailies seen on the Post, it can be addicting.

During my crazed surf through all my daily sites, I wondered what the polls were like two weeks before 2000 election (now, remember the election was held on Nov. 7 last time, not the 11/2). For what it's worth, a cursory search found the following:

From Oct. 27, 2000:

--Another poll shows race is too close to call

Republican George W. Bush reclaimed a one-point lead over Democrat Al Gore in Friday's Reuters/MSNBC daily tracking poll, as the U.S. presidential race remained too close to call.

The survey of 1,206 likely voters in the Nov. 7 election, conducted Oct. 24-27 by pollster John Zogby, found the Texas governor with 44 percent and the vice president with 43 percent. That represented a two-point decline for Gore and a one-point advance for Bush over the past 24 hours.

Green Party nominee Ralph Nader polled 5 percent; Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan stayed at 1 percent and the rest remained undecided. Gore had spent three days in the lead before Friday's survey.

The race remained well within the statistical margin of 3 percentage points. A candidate would have to be more than 6 points in the lead to be outside that zone of uncertainty - something neither candidate has achieved since the poll began Sept. 29.

Results of an ABC News poll from Oct. 23-25 had similar results. The poll showed Bush with the support of 48 percent of voters, Gore at 45 percent, Nader at 3 percent and Buchanan at 1 percent. The margin of error was put at 3 percentage points.

But a CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll taken at the same time gave Bush a wider edge. The poll showed the Texas governor getting 49 percent of the vote, the vice president 42 percent, Nader 3 percent and Buchanan 1 percent. The margin of error was put at 4 percentage points.

- Reuters News Service and The Associated Press

Two from Oct 23, 2000:

--With barely over two weeks to go for the US Presidential elections, Republican candidate George W Bush has established a lead of nine points over his Democratic opponent and Vice President Al Gore, according to just released CNN/USA Gallup tracking poll.

If the election were held Monday, 50 per cent of voters would choose Bush and 41 per cent would favor Gore, the poll suggested....

--Almost every poll at the national level is showing the Texas Governor, Mr. George W. Bush, ahead by between three and 11 percentage points, with the Green Party candidate, Mr. Ralph Nader, making a difference in States that are crucial to the Vice-President, Mr. Albert Gore....